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Rating Score/Team Success Ranking archive supplied. CFP calibration is not SportSource validation." }, "limitations": [ "Pairwise composite likelihood; pairs within a poll and weeks within a season are dependent.", "Colley and independent Gumbel errors cannot reproduce all committee considerations.", "SportSource uses the CFP-fitted error scale as an explicitly unvalidated transfer assumption.", "Held-out results validate conditional ranking estimates, not upstream game forecasts or final championship probabilities." ] }