Houston at Colorado
No clear modeled preference
- If Colorado wins
- <0.1%
- If Houston wins
- <0.1%
Cincinnati Big 12 championship chances and rooting guide
2026 season · Week 11 · Updated (UTC). Published baseline; no custom picks.
Chance to reach the Big 12 title game
<0.1%If Cincinnati wins out
<0.1%Assumes wins in remaining conference games. Other games keep their model probabilities.
Who should Cincinnati root for in Week 11?
Compare the two possible winners in each game. The difference is measured in percentage points, not added to the baseline. Games with no clear preference remain neutral.
Cincinnati at Iowa State
No clear modeled preference
- If Iowa State wins
- <0.1%
- If Cincinnati wins
- <0.1%
Kansas State at TCU
No clear modeled preference
- If TCU wins
- <0.1%
- If Kansas State wins
- <0.1%
Arizona State at UCF
No clear modeled preference
- If UCF wins
- <0.1%
- If Arizona State wins
- <0.1%
Baylor at BYU
No clear modeled preference
- If BYU wins
- <0.1%
- If Baylor wins
- <0.1%
Kansas at West Virginia
No clear modeled preference
- If West Virginia wins
- <0.1%
- If Kansas wins
- <0.1%
Utah at Arizona
No clear modeled preference
- If Arizona wins
- <0.1%
- If Utah wins
- <0.1%
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
No clear modeled preference
- If Oklahoma State wins
- <0.1%
- If Texas Tech wins
- <0.1%
What decides Cincinnati’s path?
Results change conference records and which teams enter a tie. The model applies the Big 12 tiebreakers in each simulated season, including any required modeled external inputs. A high probability is not a clinching proof.
Read the Big 12 tiebreaker guide · Compare every Big 12 team · How the estimates work
Understand your team’s path
What do these championship odds measure?
The chance of reaching the conference championship game under the current model. They do not measure winning that game, winning the national championship, or being selected for the College Football Playoff.
What happens if my team wins out?
The win-out estimate locks your team’s remaining conference games as wins. All other outcomes are still simulated. It is a conditional estimate, not a guarantee that those wins will happen or that qualification is certain.
Who should I root for this week?
Open your team’s rooting guide to compare its appearance chance under each possible result. A percentage-point swing compares the two forced outcomes. Swings from different games cannot be added together.
Does 0% mean eliminated, or 100% mean clinched?
No. Rounded simulation estimates are not mathematical proofs. Very rare paths may not appear in a finite sample. Check the conference’s official qualification announcement before treating a berth as clinched or a team as eliminated.
Why can a game involving another team matter?
A result can change the conference record, which teams enter a tie, or an opponent-based tiebreaker. Some rules also consult external ratings. The methodology explains where modeled inputs and uncertain rule interpretations enter the calculation.
Are these live scores or official CFP rankings?
No. Each guide identifies the published snapshot used for its estimates. Results may change before the next refresh. For official committee rankings, visit the College Football Playoff.