Duke at Miami
Root for Duke · 17.6 pp
- If Miami wins
- 0.6%
- If Duke wins
- 18.2%
Duke ACC championship chances and rooting guide
2026 season · Week 11 · Updated (UTC). Published baseline; no custom picks.
Chance to reach the ACC title game
3.6%If Duke wins out
89.4%Assumes wins in remaining conference games. Other games keep their model probabilities.
Who should Duke root for in Week 11?
Compare the two possible winners in each game. The difference is measured in percentage points, not added to the baseline. Games with no clear preference remain neutral.
Louisville at North Carolina
Root for North Carolina · 1.2 pp
- If North Carolina wins
- 4.3%
- If Louisville wins
- 3.1%
Wake Forest at SMU
Root for SMU · 0.2 pp · Small impact
- If SMU wins
- 3.8%
- If Wake Forest wins
- 3.6%
California at Virginia
Root for Virginia · 0.1 pp · Small impact
- If Virginia wins
- 3.7%
- If California wins
- 3.6%
Syracuse at NC State
Root for NC State · 0.1 pp · Small impact
- If NC State wins
- 3.7%
- If Syracuse wins
- 3.6%
Boston College at Notre Dame
No clear modeled preference
- If Notre Dame wins
- 3.7%
- If Boston College wins
- 3.7%
Stanford at Virginia Tech
No clear modeled preference
- If Virginia Tech wins
- 3.6%
- If Stanford wins
- 3.7%
Florida State at Pittsburgh
No clear modeled preference
- If Pittsburgh wins
- 3.6%
- If Florida State wins
- 3.7%
Georgia Tech at Clemson
No clear modeled preference
- If Clemson wins
- 3.6%
- If Georgia Tech wins
- 3.7%
What decides Duke’s path?
Results change conference records and which teams enter a tie. The model applies the ACC tiebreakers in each simulated season, including any required modeled external inputs. A high probability is not a clinching proof.
Read the ACC tiebreaker guide · Compare every ACC team · How the estimates work
Understand your team’s path
What do these championship odds measure?
The chance of reaching the conference championship game under the current model. They do not measure winning that game, winning the national championship, or being selected for the College Football Playoff.
What happens if my team wins out?
The win-out estimate locks your team’s remaining conference games as wins. All other outcomes are still simulated. It is a conditional estimate, not a guarantee that those wins will happen or that qualification is certain.
Who should I root for this week?
Open your team’s rooting guide to compare its appearance chance under each possible result. A percentage-point swing compares the two forced outcomes. Swings from different games cannot be added together.
Does 0% mean eliminated, or 100% mean clinched?
No. Rounded simulation estimates are not mathematical proofs. Very rare paths may not appear in a finite sample. Check the conference’s official qualification announcement before treating a berth as clinched or a team as eliminated.
Why can a game involving another team matter?
A result can change the conference record, which teams enter a tie, or an opponent-based tiebreaker. Some rules also consult external ratings. The methodology explains where modeled inputs and uncertain rule interpretations enter the calculation.
Are these live scores or official CFP rankings?
No. Each guide identifies the published snapshot used for its estimates. Results may change before the next refresh. For official committee rankings, visit the College Football Playoff.