Minnesota Big Ten championship chances and rooting guide

2026 season · Week 11 · Updated (UTC). Published baseline; no custom picks.

Provisional: 2026 Big Ten rules unconfirmed; using latest published 2024 policy.

Chance to reach the Big Ten title game

<0.1%

If Minnesota wins out

0.4%

Assumes wins in remaining conference games. Other games keep their model probabilities.

Test Minnesota scenarios →

Who should Minnesota root for in Week 11?

Compare the two possible winners in each game. The difference is measured in percentage points, not added to the baseline. Games with no clear preference remain neutral.

Minnesota at Penn State

No clear modeled preference

If Penn State wins
<0.1%
If Minnesota wins
<0.1%

Northwestern at Ohio State

No clear modeled preference

If Ohio State wins
<0.1%
If Northwestern wins
<0.1%

Michigan at Oregon

No clear modeled preference

If Oregon wins
<0.1%
If Michigan wins
<0.1%

Illinois at UCLA

No clear modeled preference

If UCLA wins
<0.1%
If Illinois wins
<0.1%

Wisconsin at Maryland

No clear modeled preference

If Maryland wins
<0.1%
If Wisconsin wins
<0.1%

Washington at Michigan State

No clear modeled preference

If Michigan State wins
<0.1%
If Washington wins
<0.1%

Purdue at Iowa

No clear modeled preference

If Iowa wins
<0.1%
If Purdue wins
<0.1%

Nebraska at Rutgers

No clear modeled preference

If Rutgers wins
<0.1%
If Nebraska wins
<0.1%

USC at Indiana

No clear modeled preference

If Indiana wins
<0.1%
If USC wins
<0.1%

What decides Minnesota’s path?

Results change conference records and which teams enter a tie. The model applies the Big Ten tiebreakers in each simulated season, including any required modeled external inputs. A high probability is not a clinching proof.

Read the Big Ten tiebreaker guide · Compare every Big Ten team · How the estimates work

Understand your team’s path

What do these championship odds measure?

The chance of reaching the conference championship game under the current model. They do not measure winning that game, winning the national championship, or being selected for the College Football Playoff.

What happens if my team wins out?

The win-out estimate locks your team’s remaining conference games as wins. All other outcomes are still simulated. It is a conditional estimate, not a guarantee that those wins will happen or that qualification is certain.

Who should I root for this week?

Open your team’s rooting guide to compare its appearance chance under each possible result. A percentage-point swing compares the two forced outcomes. Swings from different games cannot be added together.

Does 0% mean eliminated, or 100% mean clinched?

No. Rounded simulation estimates are not mathematical proofs. Very rare paths may not appear in a finite sample. Check the conference’s official qualification announcement before treating a berth as clinched or a team as eliminated.

Why can a game involving another team matter?

A result can change the conference record, which teams enter a tie, or an opponent-based tiebreaker. Some rules also consult external ratings. The methodology explains where modeled inputs and uncertain rule interpretations enter the calculation.

Are these live scores or official CFP rankings?

No. Each guide identifies the published snapshot used for its estimates. Results may change before the next refresh. For official committee rankings, visit the College Football Playoff.