Fresno State at Texas State
Root for Fresno State · 31.9 pp
- If Texas State wins
- 6.0%
- If Fresno State wins
- 37.9%
San Diego State Pac-12 championship chances and rooting guide
2026 season · Week 11 · Updated (UTC). Published baseline; no custom picks.
Chance to reach the Pac-12 title game
14.3%If San Diego State wins out
>99.9%Assumes wins in remaining conference games. Other games keep their model probabilities.
Test San Diego State scenarios →
Who should San Diego State root for in Week 11?
Compare the two possible winners in each game. The difference is measured in percentage points, not added to the baseline. Games with no clear preference remain neutral.
Utah State at San Diego State
Root for San Diego State · 31.6 pp
- If San Diego State wins
- 32.2%
- If Utah State wins
- 0.6%
Oregon State at Boise State
Root for Boise State · 10.3 pp
- If Boise State wins
- 16.1%
- If Oregon State wins
- 5.8%
Colorado State at Washington State
No clear modeled preference
- If Washington State wins
- 14.5%
- If Colorado State wins
- 13.9%
What decides San Diego State’s path?
Results change conference records and which teams enter a tie. The model applies the Pac-12 tiebreakers in each simulated season, including any required modeled external inputs. A high probability is not a clinching proof.
Read the Pac-12 tiebreaker guide · Compare every Pac-12 team · How the estimates work
Understand your team’s path
What do these championship odds measure?
The chance of reaching the conference championship game under the current model. They do not measure winning that game, winning the national championship, or being selected for the College Football Playoff.
What happens if my team wins out?
The win-out estimate locks your team’s remaining conference games as wins. All other outcomes are still simulated. It is a conditional estimate, not a guarantee that those wins will happen or that qualification is certain.
Who should I root for this week?
Open your team’s rooting guide to compare its appearance chance under each possible result. A percentage-point swing compares the two forced outcomes. Swings from different games cannot be added together.
Does 0% mean eliminated, or 100% mean clinched?
No. Rounded simulation estimates are not mathematical proofs. Very rare paths may not appear in a finite sample. Check the conference’s official qualification announcement before treating a berth as clinched or a team as eliminated.
Why can a game involving another team matter?
A result can change the conference record, which teams enter a tie, or an opponent-based tiebreaker. Some rules also consult external ratings. The methodology explains where modeled inputs and uncertain rule interpretations enter the calculation.
Are these live scores or official CFP rankings?
No. Each guide identifies the published snapshot used for its estimates. Results may change before the next refresh. For official committee rankings, visit the College Football Playoff.