2026 ACC Championship Scenarios and Appearance Odds

ACC / 2026 SEASON / WEEK 11

Snapshot · Nov 10, 12:55 PM ESTAbout the model ↗

YOUR ROAD TO THE TITLE GAME

Choose a team to explore its path

2026 RACE

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Every team has a story. Start yours above.

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Chance to reach
the ACC title gameChoose a team to see its estimate

THE CONFERENCE RACE

Two spots. Every result matters.

ACC

Chance to reach the title game

99.7%
57.8%
24.2%
9.0%

Model estimates · title-game appearance

THE WEEK AHEAD

Who to root for

9 games · complete weekly slate
Friday, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ESTConference

Florida State at Pittsburgh

Game favorite: Pittsburgh · 59.5% to win this game

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Comparing both outcomes for your team…

PICK A WINNER
Compare outcomes

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If Florida State wins —If Pittsburgh wins —

The difference in your team’s title-game chances if one side wins versus the other, measured in percentage points. This is not the chance of winning this individual game or a change from the current baseline. Swings cannot be added together.

Estimate details

Comparison details will appear here.

Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ESTConference

Duke at Miami

Game favorite: Miami · 82.4% to win this game

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Comparing both outcomes for your team…

PICK A WINNER
Compare outcomes

Choose your team to compare outcomes.

If Duke wins —If Miami wins —

The difference in your team’s title-game chances if one side wins versus the other, measured in percentage points. This is not the chance of winning this individual game or a change from the current baseline. Swings cannot be added together.

Estimate details

Comparison details will appear here.

Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ESTConference

Syracuse at NC State

Game favorite: Syracuse · 58.2% to win this game

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Comparing both outcomes for your team…

PICK A WINNER
Compare outcomes

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If Syracuse wins —If NC State wins —

The difference in your team’s title-game chances if one side wins versus the other, measured in percentage points. This is not the chance of winning this individual game or a change from the current baseline. Swings cannot be added together.

Estimate details

Comparison details will appear here.

Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ESTConference

Wake Forest at SMU

Game favorite: SMU · 52.7% to win this game

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Comparing both outcomes for your team…

PICK A WINNER
Compare outcomes

Choose your team to compare outcomes.

If Wake Forest wins —If SMU wins —

The difference in your team’s title-game chances if one side wins versus the other, measured in percentage points. This is not the chance of winning this individual game or a change from the current baseline. Swings cannot be added together.

Estimate details

Comparison details will appear here.

Saturday, Nov 14 · 12:30 PM ESTConference

Georgia Tech at Clemson

Game favorite: Clemson · 82.4% to win this game

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Comparing both outcomes for your team…

PICK A WINNER
Compare outcomes

Choose your team to compare outcomes.

If Georgia Tech wins —If Clemson wins —

The difference in your team’s title-game chances if one side wins versus the other, measured in percentage points. This is not the chance of winning this individual game or a change from the current baseline. Swings cannot be added together.

Estimate details

Comparison details will appear here.

Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ESTNonconference

Boston College at Notre Dame

Game favorite: Notre Dame · 97.7% to win this game

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Comparing both outcomes for your team…

PICK A WINNER
Compare outcomes

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If Boston College wins —If Notre Dame wins —

The difference in your team’s title-game chances if one side wins versus the other, measured in percentage points. This is not the chance of winning this individual game or a change from the current baseline. Swings cannot be added together.

Estimate details

Comparison details will appear here.

Saturday, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ESTConference

California at Virginia

Game favorite: Virginia · 75.5% to win this game

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Comparing both outcomes for your team…

PICK A WINNER
Compare outcomes

Choose your team to compare outcomes.

If California wins —If Virginia wins —

The difference in your team’s title-game chances if one side wins versus the other, measured in percentage points. This is not the chance of winning this individual game or a change from the current baseline. Swings cannot be added together.

Estimate details

Comparison details will appear here.

Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:00 PM ESTConference

Louisville at North Carolina

Game favorite: Louisville · 59.5% to win this game

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Comparing both outcomes for your team…

PICK A WINNER
Compare outcomes

Choose your team to compare outcomes.

If Louisville wins —If North Carolina wins —

The difference in your team’s title-game chances if one side wins versus the other, measured in percentage points. This is not the chance of winning this individual game or a change from the current baseline. Swings cannot be added together.

Estimate details

Comparison details will appear here.

Saturday, Nov 14 · 7:30 PM ESTConference

Stanford at Virginia Tech

Game favorite: Virginia Tech · 85.0% to win this game

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Comparing both outcomes for your team…

PICK A WINNER
Compare outcomes

Choose your team to compare outcomes.

If Stanford wins —If Virginia Tech wins —

The difference in your team’s title-game chances if one side wins versus the other, measured in percentage points. This is not the chance of winning this individual game or a change from the current baseline. Swings cannot be added together.

Estimate details

Comparison details will appear here.

Calculating your guide…

THE THINKING BEHIND THE NUMBERS

Football is complicated.
The assumptions should be clear.

Appearance estimates are not championship-win or CFP odds. Weekly snapshots, not live scoring.

Model details

Colley résumé proxy—not official Team Success Ranking.

Full national FBS-versus-FBS regular-season results feed a Colley ranking in each simulated season. A sampled rating error allows the final order to differ from that proxy. Rankings are used only when the ACC procedure reaches its external-ranking step. Head-to-head, eligibility, pool construction and restart rules remain in force.

Rating uncertainty is fitted to historical CFP rankings from 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022, then tested on 2023–2025. Among pairs of ranked teams, the proxy orders about 86% correctly in those held-out seasons; its errors are included in the simulation. SportSource historical ratings were unavailable: using the CFP-fitted uncertainty for SportSource is an unvalidated assumption, not a reproduction of its formula. The model samples one consistent rating order per season and averages qualification over those possibilities to display one probability.

50,000 seasons is a speed and precision budget. At that size, a single probability has an approximate 95% sampling margin of at most 0.44 percentage points. More simulations reduce random sampling noise, not errors in the game forecasts or rating assumptions. The conservative sampling envelope below is separate from model accuracy.

Each comparison forces opposite results under shared national draws, overriding that game’s own pick. Start at 50,000 pairs; refine unresolved differences at 200,000 and 500,000. A paired empirical Bernstein bound allocates the 5% comparison error budget across both tails and all three looks. Below 1 percentage point is a small impact. Coincident displayed estimates or a raw difference below 0.05 points have no meaningful preference; unresolved direction stays neutral at the cap.

Games are sampled independently. This is not a CFP-selection model. Conference appearance does not guarantee a CFP berth. Conditional swings cannot be added together.

Model: colley-fbs-uncertainty-v2 · Seed: 2026

Full methodology and sources · Historical validation and limitations

Snapshot acc-2026-20261110T175505Z · Ranking inputs 73a4fecc492a7600e9f0a6f73deb6ea374c92953b4fdb94b37c730bc2f3d3425

Data sources & rules
Updated
Results
CollegeFootballData
Win probabilities
CFBD pregame model (11) · ESPN FPI (11)
Rules
ACC 2026 (policy amended July 1, 2026) · acc-2026.v1

2026 ACC title-game appearance odds

Published baseline, before any custom picks. Updated (UTC).

Chance to reach the ACC championship game
TeamAppearance chanceIf it wins out*
Miami99.7%>99.9%
Wake Forest57.8%>99.9%
SMU24.2%50.4%
Louisville9.0%20.4%
Clemson5.5%22.5%
Duke3.6%89.4%
Pittsburgh<0.1%0.8%
North Carolina<0.1%0.4%
Virginia Tech<0.1%0.3%
Boston College<0.1%<0.1%
California<0.1%<0.1%
Florida State<0.1%<0.1%
Georgia Tech<0.1%<0.1%
NC State<0.1%<0.1%
Stanford<0.1%<0.1%
Syracuse<0.1%<0.1%
Virginia<0.1%<0.1%

*Assumes wins in remaining conference games; other games retain their model probabilities. Estimates do not prove a clinch or elimination.

Explore the ACC simulator · ACC tiebreaker guide

Understand your team’s path

What do these championship odds measure?

The chance of reaching the conference championship game under the current model. They do not measure winning that game, winning the national championship, or being selected for the College Football Playoff.

What happens if my team wins out?

The win-out estimate locks your team’s remaining conference games as wins. All other outcomes are still simulated. It is a conditional estimate, not a guarantee that those wins will happen or that qualification is certain.

Who should I root for this week?

Open your team’s rooting guide to compare its appearance chance under each possible result. A percentage-point swing compares the two forced outcomes. Swings from different games cannot be added together.

Does 0% mean eliminated, or 100% mean clinched?

No. Rounded simulation estimates are not mathematical proofs. Very rare paths may not appear in a finite sample. Check the conference’s official qualification announcement before treating a berth as clinched or a team as eliminated.

Why can a game involving another team matter?

A result can change the conference record, which teams enter a tie, or an opponent-based tiebreaker. Some rules also consult external ratings. The methodology explains where modeled inputs and uncertain rule interpretations enter the calculation.

Are these live scores or official CFP rankings?

No. Each guide identifies the published snapshot used for its estimates. Results may change before the next refresh. For official committee rankings, visit the College Football Playoff.